By Tim King

Special to the Sentry

    As I sit here looking up at the enormous pine trees in my yard, I’m pondering whether or not the number of sticky pine cones weighing heavily on each branch will have anything to do with the severity or length of the coming winter. Actually, it seems that this time of year is more about making “predictions” than any other.

    It begins for me when The Old Farmer’s Almanac comes out and declares the upcoming winter season to be warmer or colder than average. That’s the point in late summer when I begin to think about such things as the insulation in my attic, the tires on my vehicle and the wood for my stove.

    After the almanac has set the course for the upcoming year, I next find myself looking for clues in nature to somehow confirm for myself what they said. 

    How many acorns are falling from the trees? When did they start to fall? Are there more pinecones in the trees this year? Have the birds stopped visiting my feeder earlier or later than they did last year? Is there more black or brown on the wooly caterpillar crawling up the tree? The potential “clues” are endless.

   Of course, after these observations have been made, the next step should be to actually document the findings. But I don’t. After all, that’s how the almanac does it. Since its been keeping track of weather conditions (among other things) since 1792, its possible for them to simply match up what the weather was like the year that most closely matches the same set of meteorological indictors for the upcoming year. 

   With this in mind, I think my father in law should also publish his own almanac someday. For at least the last 20 years (probably more) he’s faithfully kept track of temperatures, snowfalls, ice-in and ice-out dates and other meaningful events around his town. It’s to the point now where it’s not uncommon for residents to call him to ask when a certain project was done at their own house, when a trip was made or what the weather was like on any given day. 

   I’m sure more than a few wagers have been won or lost due to his diligent record keeping through the years.

   Apart from weather predictions, fall is also the time for many other types of predictions too. For example, every few years there is considerable attention placed on trying to predict the winner of local, state and national political elections. Surely, the intense media coverage of both candidates during the upcoming presidential election will leave little time to watch anything else.   

    Across the country, there are also nonstop predictions around football. Whether it’s weekly college rankings or the NFL standings, there is no shortage of experts who emphatically state why one team won and the other team lost. Inevitably, any conversation about football will quickly shift from what happened yesterday to a teams potential playoff match up in the future or anticipated bowl game pairings. 

    So why is it that we have this insatiable appetite to try and predict the future? It’s a question that is as old as time itself. What’s more, the answers we do find can be both a benefit and a burden.

   There is no doubt that having a past knowledge of history can help prevent mistakes from repeating themselves. For example, the experienced gardener knows not to plant tender annual plants until the threat of frost has passed. Often, this lesson is first learned by planting too early and losing your crop. Likewise, forget to drain the water out of your hose in the fall and you’re likely to have it freeze and burst over the winter.

   Yes, learning from your past mistakes and predictions are what this time of year is all about. 

   However, for me, what makes life interesting is that sometimes things don’t always come out the way we thought they would. Sometimes the underdog wins the game. Sometimes the snow storm does not materialize. Sometimes you escape an accident unharmed or you conquer a disability or illness that you weren’t supposed to.

   Maybe that’s why I don’t put much stock in predictions. To me, the only thing that is certain in life is that it will be unpredictable. While its one thing to learn from past mistakes, it’s quite another to dwell on those mistakes and believe that is the only outcome possible. You simply never know.

   I’ve been told several times over the last few weeks that everything happens for a reason. While I believe this is true, I also believe that the “reason” something happens is not always found in the cause but rather in the response to the event that really matters. While you can sometimes predict an outcome based on previous experiences, you can’t predict someone’s reaction to the event. That’s entirely up to the individual.

   So while I’m spending more time chopping and stacking wood this year (partly because of the number of pine cones I see on the trees) I am also reminding myself that whatever this winter may bring, it’s not what happens but rather my response that will determine if it’s been a good year or not.

   Of course I’ll still watch for some hints from nature too, because watching nature is something I like to do- if only because we never really know what to expect. 

   Tim King is a member of the New England Outdoor Writers Association who sees the forest and the trees from his home in Scarborough. He can be contacted at sylvan.sauntering@gmail.com